Tag: Superforecaster

Test Your Beliefs

Philip Tetlock found a surprising result when testing teams of experts to predict future events. After years of tracking how well these teams did in forecasting significant events or developments in countries, he found they did little better than random chance…about as well as “a dart-throwing chimpanzee.” A big problem, however, was that these experts were

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Overconfidence: The Downfall of Decision-Making

Overconfidence sets us up for a long fall if we’re not realistic about our limitations. We all have cognitive biases that contribute to being overconfident, but these can be overcome with 6 practical methods to make more successful decisions.